Ledger
Electoral-Surface Read·MODERATE·Emerging·MT

Montana

Montana's early-stage data-center fight sharpened in mid-2026 around NorthWestern Energy's proposed large-load tariff and 2026 IRP (three data-center LOIs from 150 MW to over 1,000 MW), a contested MPSC proceeding, and an MT-01 congressional primary where the issue featured (Parsons Behle, MEIC, Montana Free Press live blog).

Energy/PowerWater/GeologyCapital Flows/InsurabilityCivic / Governance Barriers

Civic/Governance Barriers activates on moratorium-class action (C1), meaningful 2026 race (C3) — governance instruments on the electoral, legislative, and regulatory surface (protocol §10; Overview Civic breakout). Capital Flows/Insurability is a strong secondary stressor: the entire MPSC fight is about whether data-center load shifts costs and stranded-asset risk onto existing NorthWestern ratepayers, driving the demand for a separate customer class and 'Very Large Customer' approval track (Montana Free Press, Parsons Behle). Energy/Power (load exceeding system peak) is the primary driver; Water/Geology is secondary.

U.S. House MT-01: Sam Forstag won the June 2, 2026 Democratic primary (~37%) over Ryan Busse (~33%), Russell Cleveland (~22%), and Matt Rains (~8%); candidates engaged data centers in forums (transparency vs. skepticism). Forstag faces Republican Aaron Flint in November (Montana Free Press live blog, MT SoS results).

No statewide or consequential enacted local moratorium. A March 2026 op-ed by Democratic Rep. Scott Rosenzweig urged a four-year state moratorium, but that is advocacy, not law (Blaze Media covers a separate city; the four-year call is advocacy per prior reporting rather than an enacted action).

No 2026 statute (Montana's Legislature is biennial; next meets 2027). The action is at the MPSC: NorthWestern Energy filed a data-center/large-load tariff proposal (Feb. 2026) and its 2026 IRP (filed April 30, 2026) proposing a Large New Load (LNL) rule classifying customers >=50 MW as 'Very Large Customers' requiring MPSC approval before service; MEIC and allied groups sought intervention (Parsons Behle, MEIC, News From The States). Advocates earlier petitioned the PSC for a separate data-center customer class/tariff (Montana Free Press).

None identified.

NorthWestern has executed letters of intent with three data-center developers for loads ranging from 150 MW to over 1,000 MW (against ~760 MW average daily peak) — the modeled 1,160 MW scenario would exceed current system load (Parsons Behle).

Not a prominent 2026 dimension; the debate is dominated by ratepayer cost-shift and grid-capacity concerns (Montana Free Press).

Emerging — a handful of large proposed projects tied to NorthWestern LOIs rather than a built cluster (Parsons Behle).

The MPSC proceeding asks "Who wants a say in power rates for Montana data centers?" as regulators open the docket to public input (Montana Free Press).